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China's Industrial Policy, Excess Capacity, and Fragmentation


China's Industrial Policy, Excess Capacity, and Fragmentation



讲座时间:2018614日 上午1000-1130

讲座地点:创管学院320会议室

邀请人:方汉明教授



讲座内容简介:


Industrial policies, broadly defined as policies that aim at shaping a country's or region's industry structure by either promoting or limiting certain industries or sectors, have been widely used in developed and developing countries. Despite its importance, few empirical studies directly evaluate the welfare consequences of industrial policies using micro-level data. This study examines an important industrial policy in China -- the policy to develop the country's shipbuilding industry to the largest worldwide in the 2000s. Using comprehensive data sets on shipyards in China, Japan, and South Korea, we quantify the magnitude of China's industrial policies in supporting its domestic ship building industry on production, entry/exit, and investment using a dynamic model. Our estimates suggest that the combined policy benefit amounts to half a trillion RMB from 2006 to 2013, explains more than 60% of the capacity expansion, and boosts Chinese shipyards' profit by 144 billion RMB. Production subsidy is more effective in enhancing industry profit and production, while entry and investment subsidies lead to irreversible investment, fragmentation, and low capacity utilization during the economic downturn. These policies depress world ship prices and prolong the recession of the shipbuilding industry for several years.



讲座嘉宾简介:


Panle Jia Barwick is an Associate Professor of Industrial Organization, Applied Econometrics, and Applied Microeconomics in the Department of Economics at Cornell University. She serves as the Co-Director of Cornell Institute for China Economic Research (CICER). She is a faculty research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and an editorial board member of VoxChina.




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