Michael P. Keane

Michael P. Keane

Distinguished Adjunct Professor

Academic Experience

September, 2012 – present Nuffield Professor of Economics, Nuffield College and Department of Economics, University of Oxford
January, 2011 – present Australian Research Council (ARC) Laureate Fellow, Australian School of Business, University of New South Wales
January, 2011 – present ARC Centre for Population Ageing Research (CEPAR), Co-Director
July, 2006 – June, 2012 Visiting Research Professor, Arizona State University, Economics
July, 2006 – December, 2010 ARC Federation Fellow, Faculty of Business, University of Technology Sydney
July, 2006 – December, 2010 Centre for the Study of Choice, Co-Director
Aug., 2000 – June, 2006 Professor, Yale University, Economics
Sept., 1998 - July, 2001 Professor, New York University, Economics
July, 1996 - August, 1998 Professor, University of Minnesota, Economics
Sept., 1993 - June, 1996 Associate Professor, University of Minnesota,
IR Center and Dept. of Economics
Sept., 1988 - August, 1993 Assistant Professor, University of Minnesota,
IR Center and Dept. of Economics
Sept., 2004 – June, 2005 Goldwater Chair in American Institutions, Arizona State University
January, 1993 - May, 1993 Visiting Professor, NYU, Economics
January, 1991 - March, 1991 Visiting Professor, University of Alberta, Department of Marketing

Awards and Fellowships

Alfred P. Sloan Doctoral Dissertation Fellow, September 1987 - June 1988. 1996 John D.C. Little INFORMS College on Marketing Best Paper Award.
Australian Federation Fellowship, June 2005.
Elected Fellow of the Econometric Society, 2005.
Kenneth J. Arrow Award for Best Paper in Health Economics, 2008.
Elected to the Council of the Econometric Society, 2009.
Australian Laureate Fellow, August 2011.
Elected a Fellow of the Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia, 2012.
Australian Health Economics Society (AHES) Biennial Research Prize, 2013.
Fellow of the Journal of Econometrics, 2016.

Publications

Keane, M., Moffitt R. and D. Runkle (1988). Real Wages over the Business Cycle: Estimating the Impact of Heterogeneity with Micro Data. Journal of Political Economy, 96, 1232-1266.
Keane, M. and D. Runkle (1989). Are Economic Forecasts Rational? Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, 13:2, 26-33.
Keane, M. and D. Runkle (1990). Testing the rationality of price forecasts: New evidence from panel data. American Economic Review, 80:4, 714-735.
Keane, M. and D. Runkle (1992). On the Estimation of Panel Data Models with Serial Correlation when Instruments are Predetermined but not Strictly Exogenous. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10:1, 1-9. Also in The Econometrics of Panel Data, G.S. Maddala editor, Edward Elgar publisher.
Keane, M. (1992). A Note on Identification in the Multinomial Probit Model. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10:2, 193-200.
Keane, M. (1993). Individual Heterogeneity and Interindustry Wage Differentials. Journal of Human Resources, 28:1, 134-61.
Keane, M. (1993). Simulation Estimation for Panel Data Models with Limited Dependent Variables. The Handbook of Statistics, G.S.Maddala, C.R. Rao and H.D. Vinod editors, North Holland publisher.
Keane, M. (1993). Nominal Contracting Theories of Unemployment: Evidence from Panel Data. American Economic Review, 83:4, 932-52.
Keane, M. and E. Prasad (1993). Skill Levels and the Cyclical Variability of Employment, Hours and Wages. IMF Staff Papers, 40:4.
Keane, M. (1994). A Computationally Practical Simulation Estimator for Panel Data. Econometrica, 62:1, 95-116.
Geweke, J., Keane, M. and D. Runkle (1994). Alternative Computational Approaches to Statistical Inference in the Multinomial Probit Model. Review of Economics and Statistics, 76:4, 609-32.
Keane, M. and K. Wolpin (1994). The Solution and Estimation of Discrete Choice Dynamic Programming Models by Simulation: Monte Carlo Evidence. Review of Economics and Statistics, 76:4, 648-72.
Geweke, J., Keane, M. and D. Runkle (1994). Recursively Simulating Multinomial Multiperiod Probit Probabilities. Proceedings of the American Statistical Association, Business and Economic Statistics Section, 1-6.
Elrod, T. and M. Keane (1995). A Factor-Analytic Probit Model for Representing the Market Structure in Panel Data. Journal of Marketing Research, 32, 1-16.
Keane, M. (1995). A New Idea for Welfare Reform. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, 19:2, 2-28.
Erdem, T. and M. Keane (1996). Decision Making under Uncertainty: Capturing Dynamic Brand Choice Processes in Turbulent Consumer Goods Markets. Marketing Science, 15:1, 1-20. (John D.C. Little Award).
Keane, M. and E. Prasad (1996). The Employment and Wage Effects of Oil Price Shocks: A Sectoral Analysis. Review of Economics and Statistics, 78:3, 389-401.
Keane, M. and K. Wolpin (1997). Introduction to the JBES Special Issue on Structural Estimation in Applied Microeconomics. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 15:2, 111-114.
Keane, M. And K. Wolpin (1997). The Career Decisions of Young Men. Journal of Political Economy, 105:3, 473-522.
Keane, M. (1997). Modeling Heterogeneity and State Dependence in Consumer Choice Behavior. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 15:3, 310-327.
Geweke, J., Keane, M. and D. Runkle (1997). Statistical Inference in the Multinomial Multiperiod Probit Model. Journal of Econometrics, 80, 125-65.
Keane, M. (1997). Current Issues in Discrete Choice Modeling. Marketing Letters, 8:3, 307-22.
Keane, M. and R. Moffitt (1998). A Structural Model of Multiple Welfare Program Participation and Labor Supply. International Economic Review, 39:3, 553-589.
Keane, M. and D. Runkle (1998). Are Financial Analysts' Forecasts of Corporate Profits Rational? Journal of Political Economy, 106:4, 768-805.
Feinberg, S., Keane M. and M. Bognanno (1998). Trade Liberalization and Delocalization: New Evidence from Firm Level Panel Data. Canadian Journal of Economics, 31:4, 749-777.
Harris, K. and M. Keane (1999). A Model of Health Plan Choice: Inferring Preferences and Perceptions from a Combination of Revealed Preference and Attitudinal Data. Journal of Econometrics, 89: 131-157.
Erdem, T., Keane, M. and B. Sun (1999). Missing Price and Coupon Availability Data in Scanner Panels: Correcting for the Self-Selection Bias in Choice Model Parameters. Journal of Econometrics, 89: 177-196.
Geweke, J. and M. Keane (1999). Mixture of Normals Probit Models. Analysis of Panels and Limited Dependent Variable Models, Hsiao, Lahiri, Lee and Pesaran (eds.), Cambridge University Press, 49-78.
Geweke, J. and M. Keane (2000). Bayesian Inference for Dynamic Discrete Choice Models without the Need for Dynamic Programming. Simulation Based Inference and Econometrics: Methods and Applications, Mariano, Schuermann and Weeks (eds.), Cambridge University Press, 100-131. (Also available as Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis WP # 564, January 1996).
Geweke, J. and M. Keane (2000). An Empirical Analysis of Male Income Dynamics in the PSID: 1968-1989. Journal of Econometrics, 96: 293-356.
Keane, M. and K. Wolpin (2000). Equalizing Race Differences in School Attainment and Labor Market Success. Journal of Labor Economics, 18:4, 614-52.
Geweke, J., Houser, D. and M. Keane (2000). Simulation Based Inference for Dynamic Multinomial Choice Models. Companion in Theoretical Econometrics, Baltagi (ed.), Basil Blackwell, 466-493.
Feinberg, S. and M. Keane (2001). US-Canada Trade Liberalization and MNC Production Location. Review of Economics and Statistics, 83:1, 118-132.
Keane, M. and K. Wolpin (2001). The Effect of Parental Transfers and Borrowing Constraints on Educational Attainment. International Economic Review, 42:4, 1051-1103.
Geweke, J. and M. Keane (2001). Computationally Intensive Methods for Integration in Econometrics. Handbook of Econometrics: Vol. 5, J.J. Heckman and E.E. Leamer (eds.), Elsevier Science B.V., 3463-3568.
Keane, M. and E. Prasad (2001). Consumption and Income Inequality During the Transition to a Market Economy: Poland, 1985-1992. IMF Staff Papers, Annual Research Conference Special Issue, 121-154.
Keane, M. and K. Wolpin (2002). Estimating Welfare Effects Consistent with Forward Looking Behavior, Part I: Lessons from a Simulation Exercise. Journal of Human Resources, 37:3, 570-599.
Keane, M. and K. Wolpin (2002). Estimating Welfare Effects Consistent with Forward Looking Behavior, Part II: Empirical Results. Journal of Human Resources, 37:3, 600-622.
Keane, M. And E. Prasad (2002). Inequality, Transfers and Growth: New Evidence from the Economic Transition in Poland. Review of Economics and Statistics, 84:2, 324-341.
Keane, M. (2002). Financial Aid, Borrowing Constraints and College Attendance: Evidence from Structural Estimates. American Economic Review (Papers and Proceedings), 92:2, 293-297.
Keane, M. and E. Prasad (2003). Social Transfers and Inequality During the Economic Transition in Poland, Growth and Inequality: Issues and Policy Implications, Eicher and Turnovsky (eds.), MIT Press, p. 121-153.
Erdem, T., Imai, S. and M. Keane (2003). Brand and Quantity Choice Dynamics under Price Uncertainty. Quantitative Marketing and Economics, 1:1, 5-64.
Imai, S. and M. Keane (2004). Intertemporal Labor Supply and Human Capital Accumulation. International Economic Review, 45:2, 601-642.
Houser, D., M. Keane and K. McCabe (2004). Behavior in a Dynamic Decision Problem: An Analysis of Experimental Evidence Using a Bayesian Type Classification Algorithm. Econometrica, 72:3, 781-822.
Fang, H. and M. Keane (2004). Assessing the Impact of Welfare Reform on Single Mothers. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 1, p. 1-116.
Bognanno, M., D. Yang and M. Keane (2005). The Influence of Wages and Industrial Relations Environments on the Production Location Decisions of US Multinational Corporations. Industrial and Labor Relations Review, 58:2, p. 171-200.
Dieremeier, D., Keane M. and A. Merlo (2005). A Political Economy Model of Congressional Careers. American Economic Review, 95:1 (March), p. 347-373.
Keane, M. (2005). Econometric Challenges in Estimating FDI Spillover Effects on Productivity, Does Foreign Direct Investment Promote Development?, Moran, Graham and Blomstrom (eds.), Institute for International Economics, Washington DC, p. 179-191.
Feinberg, S. and M. Keane (2005). The Intra-firm Trade of US MNCs: Findings and Implications for Models and Policies Towards Trade and Investment, Does Foreign Direct Investment Promote Development?, Moran, Graham and Blomstrom (eds.), Institute for International Economics, Washington DC, p. 245-271.
Bechara, A., D. Houser, M. Keane, K. McCabe and V. Smith (2005). Identifying Individual Differences: An Algorithm with Application to Phineas Gage, Games and Economic Behavior, 52:2 (August), p. 373-385.
Erdem, T., M. Keane, S. Oncu and J. Strebel (2005). Learning About Computers: An Analysis of Information Search and Technology Choice, Quantitative Marketing and Economics, 3:3, p. 207-246.
Keane, M and E. Prasad (2006). Changes in the Structure of Earnings During the Polish Transition, Journal of Development Economics, 80:2, p. 389-427.
Feinberg, S. and M. Keane (2006). Accounting for the Growth of MNC-Based Trade using a Structural Model of US MNCs, American Economic Review, 96:5, 1515-58.
Geweke, J. and M. Keane (2006). Bayesian Cross-Sectional Analysis of the Conditional Distribution of Earnings of Men in the United States, 1967-1996, in Bayesian Statistics and its Applications, S.K. Upadhyay, U. Singh and D.K. Dey (eds.), Anamaya: New Delhi, p. 160-197.
Geweke, J. and M. Keane (2007). Smoothly Mixing Regressions, Journal of Econometrics, 138:1 (May), p. 291-311.
Fang, H., M. Keane, A. Khwaja, M. Salm and D. Silverman (2007). Testing the Mechanisms of Structural Models: The Case of the Mickey Mantle Effect, American Economic Review, 97:2 (May), p. 53-59.
Keane M. and K. Wolpin (2007). Exploring the Usefulness of a Non-Random Holdout Sample for Model Validation: Welfare Effects on Female Behavior, International Economic Review, 48:4 (November), p. 1351-78.
Keane, M. and S. Feinberg (2007). Advances in Logistics and the Growth of Intra-Firm Trade: The Case of Canadian Affiliates of U.S. Multinationals 1984-1995, Journal of Industrial Economics, 55:4 (December), p. 571-632.
Fang, H., M. Keane and D. Silverman (2008). Sources of Advantageous Selection: Evidence from the Medigap Insurance Market, Journal of Political Economy, 116:2 (April), p. 303-350. (Kenneth J. Arrow Award, 2008).
Erdem, T., M. Keane and B. Sun (2008). The Impact of Advertising on Consumer Price Sensitivity in Experience Goods Markets, Quantitative Marketing and Economics, 6:2 (June), p. 139-176.
Erdem, T., M. Keane and B. Sun (2008). A Dynamic Model of Brand Choice when Price and Advertising Signal Product Quality, Marketing Science, 27:6 (November/December), 1111-25. (Runner-up, John D.C. Little Award).
Keane, M. and K. Wolpin (2009). Empirical Applications of Discrete Choice Dynamic Programming Models. Plenary Address to Society of Economic Dynamics, July 2007. Review of Economic Dynamics, January, 1-22.
Ching, A., T. Erdem and M. Keane (2009). The Price Consideration Model of Brand Choice, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 24:3 (March/April), 393-420.
Keane, M. (2009). Simulated Maximum Likelihood Estimation Based on First Order Conditions, International Economic Review, 50:2 (May), 627-675.
Keane, M. and R. Sauer (2009). Classification Error in Dynamic Discrete Choice Models: Implications for Female Labor Supply Behavior, Econometrica, 77:3 (May), 975-991.
Feinberg, S. and M. Keane (2009). Tariff Effects on MNC Decisions to Engage in Intra-Firm and Arms Length Trade, Canadian Journal of Economics, 42:3 (August) 900-929.
Keane. M. and J. Roemer (2009). Assessing Policies to Equalize Opportunity Using a Dynamic Equilibrium Model of Educational and Occupational Choices, Journal of Public Economics, 93:7-8 (August), 879-898.
Keane, M. (2010). Structural vs. Atheoretic Approaches to Econometrics, Keynote Address at the Duke Conference on Structural Models in Labor, Aging and Health, Sept. 17-19, 2005, Journal of Econometrics, 156:1, 3-20.
Bernal, R. and M. Keane (2010). Quasi-Structural Estimation of a Model of Child Care Choices and Child Cognitive Ability Production, Journal of Econometrics, 156:1, 164-189.
Keane, M. (2010). A Structural Perspective on the Experimentalist School, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 24:2 (Spring), 47-58.
Fiebig, D., M. Keane, J. Louviere and N. Wasi (2010). The Generalized Multinomial Logit Model: Accounting for Scale and Coefficient Heterogeneity, Marketing Science, 29:3(May/June), 393-421.
Keane, M. and K. Wolpin (2010). The Role of Labor and Marriage Markets, Preference Heterogeneity and the Welfare System in the Life-Cycle Decisions of Black, Hispanic and White Women, International Economic Review, 51:3, 851-892.
Keane, M. and A. Merlo (2010). Money, Political Ambition and the Career Decisions of Politicians, American Economic Association Journal: Microeconomics, 2:3, 186-215.
Keane, M., P. Todd and K. Wolpin (2010). Structural Estimation of Behavioral Models. Handbook of Labor Economics: Vol.4, O. Ashenfelter and D. Card(eds.), Elsevier Science B.V., Chapter 4, p. 333-463.
Keane, M. and R. Sauer (2010). A Computationally Practical Simulation Estimation Algorithm for Dynamic Panel Data Models with Unobserved Endogenous State Variables, International Economic Review, 51:4 (November), 925-958.
Bernal, R. and M. Keane (2011). Child Care Choices and Children’s Cognitive Achievement: The Case of Single Mothers, Journal of Labor Economics, 29:3, (July) 459-512.
Keane M. and O. Stavrunova (2011). A Smooth Mixture of Tobits Model for Health Care Expenditure, Health Economics, 20:9 (September), 1126-53.
Johar, M., G. Jones, M. Keane, E. Savage and O. Stavrunova (2011). Waiting Times for Elective Surgery and the Decision to Buy Private Health Insurance, Health Economics, 20:S1 (September), 68-86. (AHES Biennial Research Prize, 2013).
Keane M. (2011). Human Capital, Taxes and Labour Supply, Economic Record, 87:S1 (September), 37-44.
Keane, M. (2011). Labor Supply and Taxes: A Survey, Journal of Economic Literature, 49:4, 961-1075.
Keane, M. and R. Rogerson (2012). Micro and Macro Labor Supply Elasticities - A Reassessment of Conventional Wisdom, Journal of Economic Literature, 50:2, 464-476.
Johar, M., G. Jones, M. Keane, E. Savage and O. Stavrunova (2012). Geographic differences in hospital waiting times, Economic Record, Vol. 88, No. 281 (June), 165-181.
Johnson, M. and M. Keane (2013). A Dynamic Equilibrium Model of the U.S. Wage Structure, 1968-1996, Journal of Labor Economics, 31:1, 1-49.
Johar, M., G. Jones, M. Keane, E. Savage and O. Stavrunova (2013). Discrimination in a Universal Health System: Explaining Socioeconomic Waiting Time Gaps, Journal of Health Economics, 32:1, 181-194.
Keane, M. and N. Wasi (2013). Comparing Alternative Models of Heterogeneity in Consumer Choice Behavior, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 28:6, 1018-1045.
Ching, A., T. Erdem and M. Keane (2013). Learning Models: An Assessment of Progress, Challenges and New Developments, Marketing Science, 32:6, 913-38.
Fiorini, M. and M. Keane (2014). How the Allocation of Children’s Time Affects Cognitive and Noncognitive Development, Journal of Labor Economics, 32:4, 787-836.
Ching, A., T. Erdem and M. Keane (2014). A Simple method to Estimate the Roles of Learning, Inventories and Category Consideration in Consumer Choice, Journal of Choice Modelling, 13:C, 60-72.
Keane, M. (2015). Panel Data Discrete Choice Models of Consumer Demand. Oxford Handbook of Panel Data, B.Baltagi (ed.), Oxford University Press, Chapter 18, p. 548-582.
Keane, M. (2015). Effects of Permanent and Transitory Tax Changes in a Life-Cycle Labor Supply Model with Human Capital, International Economic Review, 56:2, 485-503.
Keane, M. and R. Rogerson (2015) Reconciling Micro and Macro Labor Supply Elasticities: A Structural Perspective. Annual Review of Economics, Vol. 7, 89-117. (Also available as NBER Working Paper #17430, September 2011).
Keane, M. and O. Stavrunova (2016). Adverse Selection, Moral Hazard and the Demand for Medigap Insurance. Journal of Econometrics, 190, 62-78.
Keane, M. (2016). Life-Cycle Labour Supply with Human Capital: Econometric and Behavioural Implications, The Economic Journal, 126(592), 546-577.
Keane, M. and N. Wasi (2016). Labour Supply: the Roles of Human Capital and the Extensive Margin, The Economic Journal, 126(592), 578-617.
Keane, M. and N. Wasi (2016). How to Model Consumer Heterogeneity? Lessons from Three Case Studies on SP and RP Data, Research in Economics, 70(2), 197-231.
Keane, M. and T. Neal (2016). The Keane and Runkle Estimator for Panel Data Models with Serial Correlation and Instruments that are not Strictly Exogenous, The Stata Journal, Vol. 16(3), 523-549.
Keane, M. and S. Thorp (2016). Complex Decision Making: The Roles of Cognitive Limitations, Cognitive Decline and Ageing, The Handbook of Population Ageing, Elsevier, J. Piggott and A. Woodland (eds), forthcoming.
Ching, A., T. Erdem and M. Keane (2016). Empirical Models of Learning Dynamics: A Survey of Recent Developments. Handbook of Marketing Decision Models. B. Wierenga and R. van der Lans (eds.), International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, Springer, forthcoming.