Spillovers in Childbearing Decisions and Fertility Transitions: Evidence from China


讲座时间:2020年5月27日  14:00- 15:30


讲座嘉宾:Yun Xiao(阿姆斯特丹大学


This paper uses Chinese family planning policies to quantify and explain spillovers in fertility decisions. We test whether ethnic minorities decreased their fertility in response to the policies, although only the majority ethnic group, the Han people, was subject to birth quotas. We exploit the policy roll-out and variation in pre-policy age-specific fertility levels to construct a measure of the negative shock to the Han fertility. Combining this measure with variation in the local share of Han, we estimate that a woman gives birth to 0.65 fewer children if the average completed fertility among her peers is exogenously reduced by one child. The fertility response of minorities is driven by cultural proximity with the Han and by higher educational investments, suggesting that spillovers operate through both social and economic channels. These results provide evidence that social multipliers can accelerate fertility transitions.


Yun Xiao is a Ph.D. candidate in Economics in the Department of Economics, University of Amsterdam. She is interested in applied microeconomics, development economics, and family economics. Her research interests include peer effects in fertility decisions, human capital, education, and gender issues. One of her papers is published in the Journal of Comparative Economics, and another two papers are revised and resubmitted to the Journal of Human Resources and Journal of Population Economics.

肖韫,荷兰阿姆斯特丹大学博士研究生,2019年获得荷兰廷伯亨研究所研究型硕士学位。主要研究方向为应用微观经济学、发展经济学和家庭经济学,研究兴趣包括生育决策中的溢出效应,人力资本,教育和性别相关的问题。目前已有一篇文章发表于Journal of Comparative Economics,另有文章在Journal of Human Resources和Journal of Population Economics修改。.